The latest Global Carbon Budget assessment, released during COP30 in Belem, warns that the world is heading towards record-high greenhouse gas emissions in 2025. Despite the international commitments made under the Paris Agreement, fossil fuel emissions continue to rise, showing a serious gap between climate promises and real action.
Global Carbon Budget 2025 Warns Record Emissions and Rapidly Shrinking 1.5°C Target
Record Fossil Fuel Emissions
The report projects 38.1 billion tonnes of carbon emissions from fossil fuels in 2025, the highest in history. This represents a 1.1% rise from 2024, pushing global emissions 10% higher than 2015, when the Paris Agreement was adopted.
Scientists warn that at the current pace, the remaining carbon budget to keep global warming within 1.5°C could be used up by 2029, leaving the world vulnerable to severe climate impacts.
India’s Emissions: Slower Growth
India is expected to emit around 3.23 billion tonnes in 2025. Although emissions are still rising, the growth rate has slowed to 1.4% due to:
- Increased solar power generation
- Reduced cooling energy demand because of an early monsoon
- Slowing coal consumption, similar to trends in China
Experts highlight that India remains far lower in per capita emissions compared to major economies.
Major Emitters: United States Sees Sharp Rise
Top emitting countries (2025 projected):
| Country | Estimated Emissions |
|---|---|
| 🇨🇳 China | 12.3 billion tonnes |
| 🇺🇸 United States | 5 billion tonnes |
| 🇮🇳 India | 3.23 billion tonnes |
The United States shows the steepest increase among major nations, with emissions rising 1.9%, reversing earlier trends of stable or declining output.
Oil and gas together contribute 55% of global fossil fuel emissions.
Growing Concern Over 1.5°C Warming Limit
Climate experts warn that the 1.5°C target is becoming increasingly unrealistic unless there are rapid and deep reductions in fossil fuel use. The report notes that more than 35 countries have already proven that economic growth and emission reductions can happen together, showing that progress is possible.
However, unless governments rapidly reduce oil and gas dependency, climate risks could exceed manageable limits, resulting in extreme weather, food insecurity, and ecosystem loss.
Exam-Oriented Notes (Important Points)
- Global fossil fuel emissions projected: 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025
- Carbon budget for 1.5°C likely exhausted by 2029
- India: 3.23 billion tonnes, growth slowed to 1.4%
- Top emitters (2025): China, USA, India
- Oil + gas = 55% of fossil fuel emissions
- Report released during COP30, Belem
Question & Answer
Q1. According to the Global Carbon Budget 2025 report, global fossil fuel emissions are projected to reach:
(a) 25.6 billion tonnes
(b) 32.4 billion tonnes
(c) 38.1 billion tonnes
(d) 41.8 billion tonnes
Answer: 38.1 billion tonnes
Q2. The remaining carbon budget for keeping warming below 1.5°C may be exhausted by which year?
(a) 2027
(b) 2029
(c) 2035
(d) 2040
Answer: 2029
Q3. Which country is projected to remain the world’s largest carbon emitter in 2025?
(a) India
(b) Russia
(c) China
(d) United States
Answer: China
Q4. India’s projected emissions growth rate for 2025 is approximately:
(a) 0.5%
(b) 1.4%
(c) 3.7%
(d) 5.1%
Answer: 1.4%
Q5. Oil and gas together contribute roughly how much of global fossil fuel emissions?
(a) 25%
(b) 40%
(c) 55%
(d) 70%
Answer: 55%
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